Robust programming for basin-level water allocation with uncertain water availability and policy-driven scenario analysis

Uncertainties from hydrological and meteorological environments constantly pose disturbances to water sustainability. Programming under such uncertainties aims at finding solutions to this risky condition. From the sight of uncertain water availability, this paper builds a water life cycle model to reduce the risks of inappropriate estimations of water availability within a river basin and incorporates the results in robust programming. Then, a policy-driven scenario analysis is conducted to provide managerial implications in terms of ongoing water-saving policies. With Min–Tuo river basin as the case, we finally reach the conclusions that: (1) Equity is a necessity when considering the water allocation in a river basin, which enables a more sustainable mode of local water use. (2) Local citizens’ willingness to follow the policies is a key to relieve the water pressure, while the progress of water-saving techniques could add to its effectiveness.