Fleet Sizing Analysis Methodologies for the Royal Australian Navy's Combat Helicopter Replacement Project

Abstract : This report describes methodologies used to conduct fleet sizing analysis for the Royal Australian Navy's combat helicopter replacement project, known as AIR 9000 Phase 8. An initial analysis utilises a simple approach to predict fleet size based on the binomial distribution. The sole aim is to predict the likelihood that a certain fleet size will provide a required number of embarked aircraft. A more complex analysis requires the development of a discrete-event simulation that can also incorporate the hours flown by the fleet. This simulation model includes the representation of individual aircraft moving between embarked and ashore states and through various types of maintenance, including unscheduled maintenance. This methodology is robust and easily allows for sensitivity and trade-off analysis.