Meta-analysis of 1,200 transcriptomic profiles identifies a prognostic model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Background: With a dismal 8% median 5-year overall survival (OS), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is highly lethal. Only 10-20% of patients are eligible for surgery, and over 50% of these will die within a year of surgery. Identify molecular predictors of early death would enable the selection of PDAC patients at high risk. Methods: We developed the Pancreatic Cancer Overall Survival Predictor (PCOSP), a prognostic model built from a unique set of 89 PDAC tumors where gene expression was profiled using both microarray and sequencing platforms. We used a meta-analysis framework based on the binary gene pair method to create gene expression barcodes robust to biases arising from heterogeneous profiling platforms and batch effects. Leveraging the largest compendium of PDAC transcriptomic datasets to date, we show that PCOSP is a robust single-sample predictor of early death (≤1 yr) after surgery in a subset of 823 samples with available transcriptomics and survival data. Results: The PCOSP model was strongly and significantly prognostic with a meta-estimate of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (P=1.9e-18) and hazard ratio (HR) of 1.95(1.6-2.3) (P=2.6e-16) for binary and survival predictions, respectively. The prognostic value of PCOSP was independent of clinicopathological parameters and molecular subtypes. Over-representation analysis of the PCOSP 2619 gene-pairs (1070 unique genes) unveiled pathways associated with Hedgehog signalling, epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and extracellular matrix (ECM) signalling. Conclusion: PCOSP could improve treatment decision by identifying patients who will not benefit from standard surgery/chemotherapy and may benefit from alternate approaches.