Uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission models: A case in Colombia’s transport sector

Abstract As part of the inputs for of the Colombian Strategy for Low-Carbon Development (ECBDC), the Studies Group for Urban and Regional Sustainability (SUR) of Universidad de los Andes, working with a group of national experts in the transport sector, developed a model to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by that sector in 2010. National emissions were projected for the period 2010-2040, using Kaya factors, and there were assessments of a range of options to mitigate emissions through a cost-effectiveness analysis. A marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) was generated, identifying potential mitigation of 290 million tons accumulated up to 2040. An estimate was made of the uncertainty associated with the input parameters for the model mentioned. The statistical properties were estimated based on technical and scientific literature and the IPCC recommendations. The intention was to identify the stochastic condition of the initially deterministic model. For this purpose, random values were generated based on Monte Carlo simulations, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the variables with the greatest influence on the final results.