Decision framework for evaluating compliance with the Threshold Test Ban Treaty

We have developed a decision framework for evaluating Soviet compliance with the 150-kt limit on the yield of nuclear tests, as specified by the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. The framework is designed to help interpret available evidence of possible violations and respond appropriately to that evidence. The ''evidence'' consists of estimates of the yield of Soviet tests. Interpreting and responding to evidence of possible violations requires a series of technical determinations and policy judgments. The decision maker may wish to consider: the degree of uncertainty in the monitoring data; potential Soviet violation scenarios and their significance; the probability of Soviet violations; the relative values of correct or incorrect responses; and the role of US responses to evidence in deterring future violations. The decision framework provides methods for incorporating explicitly each of these factors when interpreting and responding to evidence. The framework is best viewed as an aid to decision making. The intent, of course, is not to replace the policy maker with an analytic process. Rather, the framework provides a systematic method for organizing and incorporating diverse inputs, exploring the implications of alternative technical and value judgments, and understanding complex trade-off. By exercising the framework, technical analysts and policy makers more » can build new insights, which ultimately can lead to better compliance evaluation decisions. 31 refs., 32 figs. « less