Crime and income trajectories preceding lethal and non-lethal violence

Abstract Purpose This study analyzes the pathways leading to violent offending. We examine whether the lethality of a violent crime could be predicted based on individuals' prior history of violent crime and income, and whether the trajectories of lethal offenders are distinguishable from the pathways of non-lethal offenders. Methods We use a sample of police-reported violent crimes committed in Finland in 2010–2011 (N = 26,303) and contrast the pathways to homicide with the trajectories leading to petty assault, assault, aggravated assault, and attempted homicide. Group-based trajectory modeling is applied for identifying individuals with similar trajectories, and multilevel modeling is used for estimating the mean trajectories for offenders of differing severity. Results Results indicate that homicide offenders display a clear escalation in the frequency of violent offending and a slight decrease in income prior to the offense, but the pathways to homicide largely resemble the pathways to aggravated assault and attempted homicide. Conclusions The lethality of violent offending cannot be predicted from the offender's crime and income. The greatest divide in the violence severity continuum is between offenders of assaults and offenders of aggravated assaults, with the latter group largely resembling offenders of completed and attempted homicides.