For the Win: Risk‐Sensitive Decision‐Making in Teams

Risk-sensitivity theory predicts that decision-makers should prefer high-risk options in high need situations when low-risk options will not meet these needs. Recent attempts to adopt risk-sensitivity as a framework for understanding human decision-making have been promising. However, this research has focused on individual-level decision-making, has not examined behavior in naturalistic settings, and has not examined the influence of multiple levels of need on decision-making under risk. We examined group-level risk-sensitive decision-making in two American football leagues: the National Football League (NFL) and the National College Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I. Play decisions from the 2012 NFL (Study 1; N = 33 944), 2013 NFL (Study 2; N = 34 087), and 2012 NCAA (Study 3; N = 15 250) regular seasons were analyzed. Results demonstrate that teams made risk-sensitive decisions based on two distinct needs: attaining first downs (a key proximate goal in football) and acquiring points above parity. Evidence for risk-sensitive decisions was particularly strong when motivational needs were most salient. These findings are the first empirical demonstration of team risk-sensitivity in a naturalistic organizational setting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.