The site‐specific epidemiology of hip fracture in the Australian Capital Territory with projections for the first half of the 21st century: Implications for clinical management and health services planning

Objectives:To analyse the site-specific epidemiology of hip fracture (HF) for the ACT and to project HF up to 2051. Methods:Age- and sex-specific rates of HF and projections of the number of HFs were calculated by applying the age- and sex-specific rates to the median population projections. Results:Analysis of patterns of HF by anatomical site of fracture revealed a diverse relationship according to age and sex. Fracture rates were higher in men before age 60 (1.8 : 1), and thereafter in women (3.1 : 1). In the age group of 60–64 years, the female : male ratio was 8.2 : 1 for cervical versus 1.8 : 1 for trochanteric fractures. Treatment for osteoporosis was under-utilised. HF in people aged > 60 years will almost double by 2011, and increase 2.5-fold and 5.4-fold by the years 2021 and 2051, respectively. The greatest increase will occur in older men. Conclusions:The number of HFs in the first half of the 21st century will increase dramatically. Aetiological and pathophysiological differences in HF emphasise the need to individualise preventative strategies.