Simulating the Long-Term Effects of Fertilizer and Water Management on Grain Yield and Methane Emissions of Paddy Rice in Thailand

Rice is an important economic crop in Thailand. However, paddy rice fields are one of the largest anthropogenic sources of methane (CH4) emissions. Therefore, suitable crop management practice is necessary to reduce CH4 emissions while rice grain yield is maintained. This study aimed to evaluate appropriate options of fertilizer and water management practices for Thai rice cultivation with regards to improving rice grain yield and reducing CH4 emissions. The Denitrification–Decomposition (DNDC) model was used to simulate grain yield and the emission of CH4 under the three fertilizer options (chemical fertilizer (F), manure (M) and chemical fertilizer + manure (F + M)) with three water management options (continuous flooding (CF), mid-season drainage (MD) and alternate wet and dry (AWD)) during the years 2011–2050. Rain-fed and irrigated rice cropping systems were used. A total of 24 sites distributed in 22 provinces were studied. The data sets of daily climate, soil properties, and rice management practices were required as inputs in the model. Model validation with observation data in a field experiment indicated that simulated grain yields (R2 = 0.83, slope = 0.98, NRMES = 0.30) and cumulative seasonal CH4 emissions (R2 = 0.83, slope = 0.74, NRMES = 0.43) were significantly and positively correlated with the observation. At the end of the simulation period (2046–2050), fertilizer management options of F and F + M gave more grain yield than the M management option by 1–44% in rain-fed rice cropping and 104–190% in irrigated rice cropping system, respectively. Among options, the lower CH4 emissions were found in AWD water management options. The appropriate options with regard to maintaining grain yield and reducing CH4 emissions in the long term were suggested to be F + M with AWD for the rain-fed rice, and F with AWD for the irrigated rice cropping systems.