IS THERE ANY CORRELATION BETWEEN THE CHRONIC BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT AND THE ROMANIA'S INCREASING EXTERNAL DEBT?

According to the data provided by the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and Eurostat, the balance-of-payments current account registered a permanent and increasing deficit since 1990, while the domestic production was accelerated decreasing and the FDI inflows were far from being enough to cover the internal consumption needs. These being the facts, the present paper aims to underline the fact there is a direct correlation between the increasing external debt of Romania in the last years, and the balance of trade increasing deficit, which is due mainly to the lack of domestic capital, as well as to the decreasing productivity. The research methodology is based on a theoretical model of external debt sustainability, using time series data for Romania and using a multi-equation model. The results show that the relationship between external debt and the balance of trade deficit should be analysed with a simultaneous equation model, because there is a two-way relationship between debt service and deficit growth: the higher the imports, the higher the external debt, and as a consequence, the higher the balance of trade deficit, if the productivity is low. This result is consistent with the Romanian experience, and its implications are very large and will multiply over the years, if there will be no adequate policies meant to revival the private sector, mainly the SMEs. In this respect, the paper concludes that the Romanian government should immediately take the necessary measures to facilitate the easy access to capital for the private investors, which will further stimulate the internal production, with a direct impact onto the increase of exports, which will determine on the one hand, the reduction of the balance of trade deficit and simultaneous, the increasing of the necessary budgetary revenues to pay back the external debt. Otherwise, all costs will be supported by the next generations, with no return, if the probability for declaring "default" will be successfully surpass in the short run.