Sequences in the Interferon Sensitivity-Determining Region and Core Region of Hepatitis C Virus Impact Pretreatment Prediction of Response to PEG-Interferon Plus Ribavirin: Data Mining Analysis

The aim of the present study was to clarify the significance of viral factors for pretreatment prediction of sustained virological response to pegylated-interferon (PEG-IFN) plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy for chronic hepatitis C using data mining analysis. Substitutions in the IFN sensitivity-determining region (ISDR) and at position 70 of the HCV core region (Core70) were determined in 505 patients with genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C treated with PEG-IFN plus RBV. Data mining analysis was used to build a predictive model of sustained virological response in patients selected randomly (n = 304). The reproducibility of the model was validated in the remaining 201 patients. Substitutions in ISDR (odds ratio = 9.92, P < 0.0001) and Core70 (odds ratio = 1.92, P = 0.01) predicted sustained virological response independent of other covariates. The decision-tree model revealed that the rate of sustained virological response was highest (83%) in patients with two or more substitutions in ISDR. The overall rate of sustained virological response was 44% in patients with a low number of substitutions in ISDR (0–1) but was 83% in selected subgroups of younger patients (<60 years), wild-type sequence at Core70, and higher level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (≥120 mg/dl). Reproducibility of the model was validated (r2 = 0.94, P < 0.001). In conclusion, substitutions in ISDR and Core70 of HCV are significant predictors of response to PEG-IFN plus RBV therapy. A decision-tree model that includes these viral factors as predictors could identify patients with a high probability of sustained virological response. J. Med. Virol. 83:445–452, 2011. © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.