Forecast and Analysis of Amount of Requirement for Urban Construction Land in Yichang City

In order to probe the coherence between values of forecast of planning and amounts of practical requirement,grey correlation analysis was carried out on basis of data of land using alteration and statistic data of society and economy from 1996 to 2004 in Yichang city.Simultaneously,considering its middleterm and long-term planning goals of local economical and social development,the amounts of requirement of urban construction land(UCL) from 2010 to 2020 year were forecasted.The results showed that 3 factors,which are town population,sum of fixed assets investment and value of gross industry production,act as main driving factors which affect UCL enlargement.And weights of the 3 factors are 0.404,0.316 and 0.280 respectively,the accumulated increasing areas of UCL in 2010,2015 and 2020 are 742.36,1 673.12 and 2 857.43 hm2 respectively,compared with planning base year(2004 year).The prediction results could provide scientific basis for establishing urban construction planning of Yichang.