Analyzing electrification scenarios for the northern European energy system

Abstract The electrification of other energy sectors is a viable pathway toward a climate-neutral energy system. This chapter analyzes electrification scenarios for 2030 and 2050 in the Nordic countries. The scenarios for 2030 consist of three tiers of electrification in industry, transportation, and heating. The scenario for 2050 highlights a high level of electrification in all the Nordic countries using a high emission permit price to drive climate-neutral investments across the energy sectors. The results indicate that electrification measures will increase renewable power generation, mainly wind power, but there is also an increased need for flexibility from generation, demand, and imported electricity. Average power prices will undergo only minor changes as new flexible consumption increases the marginal prices even when variable power generation is producing a lot.