Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer.

Background: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between predicted age from these clocks and chronological age (epigenetic age acceleration) has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. Methods: We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno) and one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n=408;105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic measures compared to a clinical model including age, gender, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. Results: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors [HRs per standard deviation (SD) increase in age acceleration =1.32 (95% CI=1.08, 1.61; p=0.007) and 1.39 (95% CI =1.06, 1.83; p=0.017), respectively]. There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p-value for difference=0.069). Conclusion: Our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic age acceleration measures to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors.