Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Individual Patients with Stage Ta T1 Bladder Cancer Using EORTC Risk Tables: A Combined Analysis of 2596 Patients from Seven EORTC Trials

Abstract Objectives To provide tables that allow urologists to easily calculate a superficial bladder cancer patient's short- and long-term risks of recurrence and progression after transurethral resection. Methods A combined analysis was carried out of individual patient data from 2596 superficial bladder cancer patients included in seven European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials. Results A simple scoring system was derived based on six clinical and pathological factors: number of tumors, tumor size, prior recurrence rate, T category, carcinoma in situ, and grade. The probabilities of recurrence and progression at one year ranged from 15% to 61% and from less than 1% to 17%, respectively. At five years, the probabilities of recurrence and progression ranged from 31% to 78% and from less than 1% to 45%. Conclusions With these probabilities, the urologist can discuss the different options with the patient to determine the most appropriate treatment and frequency of follow-up.