The use of GIS to develop a probability-based trunk mains burst risk model

Abstract A probability-based model has been developed to estimate the failure risk of water mains greater than 300 mm in diameter. Data from past failures and a number of environmental factors have been analysed to determine a failure probability score for each water main in Thames Water's London Water Supply Region. This is combined with spatial data on the consequences of water mains failure to develop a broader failure risk score. This model can be used to aid operation and planning functions enabling; prioritisation of investment, optimisation of maintenance and service recovery and proactive planning to reduce burst frequency.