Theoretical Epidemiology on Bovine Ephemeral Fever Outbreaks in Tanegashima Island, Kagoshima Prefecture of Japan in 1988

From the end of September to November 1988, a compact scale of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) outbreaks occurred suddenly in Tanegashima island of Kagoshima Prefecture, southern part of Kyusyu island of Japan. The BEF outbreak pattern showed epidemical characteristics as follows; (1) outbreak spread from few foci to zone during one month, and (2) the disease might be transmitted in farms with a fixed probability of adequate contact. By using the above aspects, we attempted to analyze the disease theoretically with the application of Poisson distribution and Reed-Frost model. The BEF incidence in farms was in well accord with the Poisson distribution. As the very rare event occurred in unit time or in unit area in this epidemic, the cattle population at risk were equivalently susceptible to BEF virus in this island, due to the influence of no vaccination to BEF control before the first outbreak. Similarly, the epidemic curve of the Reed-Frost model was proved to fit well the incidence observed in a farm, and the probability of adequate contact was induced as p=0.226. If the cattle population is less than 5 in this farm, the outbreak would not occur in the first instance.