A hybrid model for spatiotemporal forecasting of PM2.5 based on graph convolutional neural network and long short-term memory

Abstract Increasing availability of data related to air quality from ground monitoring stations has provided the chance for data mining researchers to propose sophisticated models for predicting the concentrations of different air pollutants. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid model based on deep learning methods that integrates Graph Convolutional networks and Long Short-Term Memory networks (GC-LSTM) to model and forecast the spatiotemporal variation of PM 2.5 concentrations. Specifically, historical observations on different stations are constructed as spatiotemporal graph series, and historical air quality variables, meteorological factors, spatial terms and temporal attributes are defined as graph signals. To evaluate the performance of the GC-LSTM, we compared our results with several state-of-the-art methods in different time intervals. Based on the results, our GC-LSTM model achieved the best performance for predictions. Moreover, evaluations of recall rate (68.45%), false alarm rate (4.65%) (both of threshold: 115 μg/m 3 ) and correlation coefficient R 2 (0.72) for 72-hour predictions also verify the feasibility of our proposed model. This methodology can be used for concentration forecasting of different air pollutants in future.