Development of an uncertain Gaussian diffusion model with its application to production-emission system management in coal-dependent city- a case study of Yulin, China

Abstract In this study, an uncertain Gaussian diffusion model (UGD) was developed for supporting production-emission system (PES) management in coal-dependent city. UGD-PES model cannot only deal with uncertainties expressed as probability and possibility distributions, but also quantify subjective imprecision presented as fuzzy sets with risk preference attitude. The developed UGD-PES model is then applied to a case study of Yulin city within a multi-industry, multi-emission and multi-period context, for identifying current industry-environment policies in this coal-dependent city. The obtained results can support managers identify desired system designs, which can be beneficial to construct a cleaner industrial mode and optimized industry-environment policy for relieving pressure on atmospheric environmental governance due to industrial emissions.