Examining the risk of the hindsight bias : the role of incentives

Hindsight bias is the tendency for individuals to believe that an unforeseeable event was predictable or to believe in an increased probability of its occurrence, only after possessing knowledge of the outcome. Previous research has suggested that hindsight bias might be harmful in multiple cases involving the healthcare system, the legal system and the business sector. The aim of the current study was to determine the severity of the hindsight bias with the use of incentives. The hypothesis of the study was that outcome information has less effect on the judgement of those who are incentivised and are thereby affected by the consequences. Participants consisted of 195 undergraduate students in total (105 men and 83 women) registered in an entrepreneurship course. The participants were randomly assigned to four groups in a 2×2 between subject design (hindsight×consequences). “Hindsight” refers to whether they received outcome-information regarding an investment opportunity or not and “consequence” refers to whether they were paid for their participation in the study or not. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) confirmed a statistically significant interaction between the predication of stock value of the company upon receiving outcome information based on whether participants were incentivised or not. These results indicate that the hindsight bias is not as problematic in real life circumstances as previous research suggests.; Eftirahyggja (e. hindsight bias) er hugsanaskekkja sem lýsir ser þannig að einstaklingar trua þvi að þeir hefðu geta seð fyrir um ofyrirsjaanlegar afleiðingar, eftir að utkoma er ljos. Rannsoknir hafa endurtekið sýnt að eftirahyggja geti valdið skaða, til daemis i heilbrigðiskerfinu, rettarkerfinu og i viðskiptaheiminum. Markmið nuverandi rannsoknar var að akvarða haettuna sem getur stafað af eftirahyggju þegar akvorðunin skiptir mali. Tilgata rannsoknarinnar var að upplýsingar um utkomu hafi minni ahrif a mat einstaklinga sem hljota afleiðingar fyrir akvorðun sina. Þatttakendur voru 195 haskolanemar (108 karlar og 83 konur) sem skraðir voru i afanga i nýskopun. Þatttakendum var skipt af handahofi i fjora hopa eftir þvi hvort þau fengu greitt fyrir þatttoku eða ekki, og eftir þvi hvort þau fengu upplýsingar um utkomu eða ekki. Samdreifigreining leiddi i ljos að marktaek samvirkni var milli þess að fa upplýsingar um utkomu og hvernig spa þatttakenda var fyrir hlutabref fyrirtaekisins, eftir þvi hvort þatttakendur fengu greitt eða ekki. Niðurstoðurnar benda til þess að mogulega minnkar hvatning eftirahyggju, sem gefur til kynna að af þvi stafi minni ogn en fyrri rannsoknir hafa sýnt.