Bias and careers: Evidence from the aid effectiveness literature

Abstract We collect data on the careers of 189 authors who published aid effectiveness estimates during the 1970 to 2011 period, and apply meta-regression analysis to investigate the impact of authors' careers on the degree of selectivity in which results are reported. Among non-tenured researchers, publication selection bias and research inflation are increasing with age, on average. This bias is highest among older non-tenured researchers. In search for channels, we find suggestive evidence that a portion of the preferential reporting in favour of aid effectiveness is associated with non-tenured authors’ links with aid agencies.