Modeling bark beetles and fuels on landscapes: A demonstration of ArcFuels and a discussion of possible model enhancements

5 Abstract—The Westwide Pine Beetle Model and the Fire and Fuels Extension were used to simulate a mountain pine beetle outbreak under different fuel treatment scenarios on a 173,000 acre landscape on the Deschutes National Forest. The goal was to use these models within ArcFuels to analyze the interacting impacts of bark beetles and management activities on landscape fuel dynamics. Issues pertaining to modeling the complex inter-relationships of fire, bark beetles, and fuel dynamics are discussed, including: thinning effects on inter-stand bark beetle migration; relationships between beetle migration and survivorship; tree mortality source (e.g., fire vs. bark beetle) and its relation - ship to the tree's subsequent fuel deterioration dynamics; fire effects on beetles and beetle behavior in fire-affected landscapes. Ideas for future model development are presented.