PCR Test Is Not an Accurate Predictor of Lung Damage in COVID-19 Patients

Background: Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to confirm the COVID-19 case in many countries across the globe at an early stage of the pandemic. This study aimed at evaluation of diagnostic accuracy of PCR test in comparison with chest CT to detect COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods: The study followed a cross-sectional analytical design and relied on the nationwide data on all COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospitals of Kazakhstan between 14 March and 18 April, 2020. We calculated the measures of diagnostic test’s accuracy with 0.95 level confidence intervals following standard methodology. Results: PCR test demonstrated reasonable sensitivity (0.8095) but had low specificity (0.1079) and diagnostic accuracy (0.2707). Conclusion: There is a need to envisage prediction rules to evaluate the pretest probability of infection in order to estimate the post-test probability and to take relevant action in case of unexpected test’s result. As inaccurate diagnostic tests undermine containment efforts, public input is desired. Funding Statement: This study received no funding. Declaration of Interests: There is no conflict of interest to declare for any of the authors. Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical Committee of Semey Medical University, Semey, Republic of Kazakhstan granted permission prior to the study beginning and waived the informed consent.