Statistical analysis of the sustained lava dome emplacement and destruction processes at Popocatépetl volcano, Central México

Popocatepetl volcano reawakened in 1994 after nearly 70 years of quiescence. Between 1996 and 2015, a succession of at least 38 lava domes have been irregularly emplaced and destroyed, with each dome reaching particular volumes at specific emplacement rates. The complexity of this sequence is analyzed using statistical methods in an attempt to gain insight into the physics and dynamics of the lava dome emplacement and destruction process and to objectively assess the hazards related to that volcano. The time series of emplacements, dome residences, lava effusion lulls, and emplaced dome volumes and thicknesses are modeled using the simple exponential and Weibull distributions, the compound non-homogeneous generalized Pareto–Poisson process (NHPPP), and the mixture of exponentials distribution (MOED). The statistical analysis reveals that the sequence of dome emplacements is a non-stationary, self-regulating process most likely controlled by the balance between buoyancy-driven magma ascent and volatile exsolution crystallization. This balance has supported the sustained effusive activity for decades and may persist for an undetermined amount of time. However, the eruptive history of Popocatepetl includes major Plinian phases that may have resulted from a breach in that balance. Certain criteria to recognize such breaching conditions are inferred from this statistical analysis.