Математическая модель вероятности события “инсульт – факторы риска»

The article contains data on the mathematical modeling of the stroke probability in the individual patient. This method can also be applied for determining these parameters for social groups and individuals. A large amount of laboratory research was performed in hospital of Karaganda city, then the correlation was determined between the event "stroke" and 35 risk factors. Next stage was to develop a regression model "stroke-risk factors." This model was developed by logistic regression method. The obtained equations allowed to determine the probability of occurrence of a stroke. Since the regression equation is inherently close to the determined, it can be differentiated.First derivative of the probability of each of the risk factors allowed us to determine the rate of increase of probability. This provision is new.