Kinetics of HMX and CP Decomposition and Their Extrapolation for Lifetime Assessment

Accelerated aging tests play an important role in assessing the lifetime of manufactured products. There are two basic approaches to lifetime qualification. One tests a product to failure over range of accelerated conditions to calibrate a model, which is then used to calculate the failure time for conditions of use. A second approach is to test a component to a lifetime-equivalent dose (thermal or radiation) to see if it still functions to specification. Both methods have their advantages and limitations. A disadvantage of the 2nd method is that one does not know how close one is to incipient failure. This limitation can be mitigated by testing to some higher level of dose as a safety margin, but having a predictive model of failure via the 1st approach provides an additional measure of confidence. Even so, proper calibration of a failure model is non-trivial, and the extrapolated failure predictions are only as good as the model and the quality of the calibration. This paper outlines results for predicting the potential failure point of a system involving a mixture of two energetic materials, HMX (nitramine octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) and CP (2-(5-cyanotetrazalato) pentaammine cobalt (III) perchlorate). Global chemical kinetic models for the two materials individually and as a mixture are developed and calibrated from a variety of experiments. These include traditional thermal analysis experiments run on time scales from hours to a couple days, detonator aging experiments with exposures up to 50 months, and sealed-tube aging experiments for up to 5 years. Decomposition kinetics are determined for HMX (nitramine octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) and CP (2-(5-cyanotetrazalato) pentaammine cobalt (III) perchlorate) separately and together. For high levels of thermal stress, the two materials decompose faster as a mixture than individually. This effect is observed both in high-temperature thermal analysis experiments and in long-term thermal aging experiments. An Arrhenius plot of the 10% level of HMX decomposition by itself from a diverse set of experiments is linear from 120 to 260 C, with an apparent activation energy of 165 kJ/mol. Similar but less extensive thermal analysis data for the mixture suggests a slightly lower activation energy for the mixture, and an analogous extrapolation is consistent with the amount of gas observed in the long-term detonator aging experiments, which is about 30 times greater than expected from HMX by itself for 50 months at 100 C. Even with this acceleration, however, it would take {approx}10,000 years to achieve 10% decomposition at {approx}30 C. Correspondingly, negligible decomposition is predicted by this kinetic model for a few decades aging at temperatures slightly above ambient. This prediction is consistent with additional sealed-tube aging experiments at 100-120 C, which are estimated to have an effective thermal dose greater than that from decades of exposure to temperatures slightly above ambient.