The Effect of Crop Rotation and Cultivation History on Predicted Carbon Sequestration in Soils of Two Experimental Fields in the Moscow Region, Russia

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in arable soils is a challenging goal. We focused on the effect of crop rotation and previous land use for future carbon sequestration on two experimental fields on Retisols with four contrasting fertilization treatments each. We analyzed the SOC dynamics and used the RothC model to forecast the SOC. We found a consistent increase in SOC stocks and stable fractions of the soil organic matter (SOM) with C accumulation in the next 70 years compared to the 90-year experimental period, more evident under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) compared with the RCP8.5 scenario. The expected increase in SOC will be higher in the crop rotation with a grass field than in the experiment with an alternation of row crops and cereals. The efficiency depended on stable SOM fractions, and fields with more extended cultivation history showed higher SOM stability. Proper crop rotations are more important for SOC stability than the uncertainty associated with the climate change scenarios that allows timely adaptation. The goal of a 4‰ annual increase of SOC stocks may be reached under rotation with grasses in 2020–40 and 2080–90 when applying a mineral or organic fertilizer system for scenario RCP4.5 and a mineral fertilizer system in 2080–2090 for scenario RCP8.5.