Development of an accelerated test design for predicting the service life of the solar array at Mead, Nebraska. Quarterly report

Economic viability requires that photovoltaic arrays should have a service life of 20 years or longer. Qualification and performance tests indicate that presently available photovoltaic modules provide acceptable performance at the time of installation. This study is being conducted as part of a program to develop and validate an accelerated test plan that can be used to predict the useful service life of present and future solar arrays. Previously a methodology was developed for designing an accelerated test program incorporating trade-offs between the cost of each test and its value in reducing the variance in the life prediction for that array. The objective of the present study is to apply this methodology to develop an accelerated test plan to predict the service life of the 25-kW photovoltaic array installed near Mead, Nebraska. Potential long-term degradation modes for the two types of modules in the Mead array have been determined and judgments have been made as to those environmental stresses and combinations of stresses which accelerate the degradation of the power output. Hierarchical trees representing the severity of effects of stresses (test conditions) on eleven individual degradation modes have been constructed and have been pruned of tests judged to be nonessential.more » Composites of those trees have been developed so that there is now one pruned tree covering eight degradation modes, another covering two degradation modes, and a third covering one degradation mode. These three composite trees form the basis for selection of test conditions in the final test plan which is now being prepared.« less