To Be or Not to Be: Analyzing & Modeling Social Recommendation in Online Social Networks

Firms are now considering to offer rewards to customers who recommend the firms' products/services in online social networks (OSN). However, the pros and cons of such social recommendation scheme are still unclear. Thus, it is difficult for firms to design rewarding schemes. Via empirical analysis of data, we first identify key factors that affect the spreading of a firm's product in OSNs. These findings enable us to develop an accurate (i.e., with a high validation accuracy) mathematical model on social recommendations. In particular, our model captures how users decide whether to recommend an item, which is a key factor but often ignored by previous social recommendation models such as the "Independent Cascade model". We also design algorithms to infer model parameters. Using these parameters in our model, we uncover conditions when social recommendation can (or cannot) improves a firm's profit. These conditions help a firm to design rewarding schemes. Finally, we extend our model to an online setting and design reinforcement learning algorithms for a firm to dynamically optimize its rewarding schemes.