Efficiency of Semi-Autonomous and Fully Autonomous Bus Services in Trunk-and-Branches Networks

Automation technology is expected to change the public transport sector radically in the future. One rising issue is whether to embrace the intermediate stage of semi-autonomous buses or to wait until fully autonomous buses are available. This paper proposes a cost model of bus operations considering automation technology. The generalized cost, which is the sum of waiting, riding, operating, and capital cost, is modeled for conventional, semi-autonomous, and fully autonomous bus services on a generic trunk-and-branches network. Semi-autonomous buses achieve reduced unit operating cost through automated platooning on the corridor. The relative efficiency of the different services is studied under a range of scenarios for commercial speed, network structure, and demand distribution. Analytical and numerical results show that fully autonomous buses exhibit great potential through reduced operating and waiting costs even if the additional capital cost is high. The advantages of semi-autonomous buses are weaker and most prominent in networks with low demand along a long corridor such as interurban networks. For both automation levels a commercial speed comparable to conventional vehicles is crucial. The established criteria provide input to planners and operators for understanding the potential of automated bus services.