Evaluating Attribution In A Business Markets Program

This paper describes the method, results and conclusions of a study of the influences Enbridge Gas Distribution’s business markets program has had on commercial, industrial and multi-residential customers. The study was done to help determine Enbridge’s shareholder financial incentive for the program by estimating the level of program-driven attribution, including both free riders and participant spillover. Initial review of previous attribution findings and the method used previously for determining attribution suggested an opportunity to improve the program’s attribution estimates by altering the dimensions of the attribution estimation, the design of the survey used to determine the estimate inputs, and scoring of survey responses to obtain a more robust estimate. The research assessed the 2001 and 2002 program years in light of a program audit process recently concluded for the 2000 program year. A customer survey process was developed that refined both previous attribution survey designs and incorporated additional market perspectives by including the perspective of field sales staff as a legitimate class of market actors. Another approach, to reduce memory-loss and self-acclaim biases, was to recreate the customer project decision and Enbridge relationship context. The effort included interviews with customers of a statistical sample of projects implemented in program years 2001 and 2002. Interview responses were used to estimate program influence for each project interviewed, with overall survey responses compiled to estimate the level of attribution. Looking to the future, the survey process may be used as the basis for on-going customer attribution surveying to improve the quality of information concerning customers’ project decisions and the utility’s influence.