Explanation and creative city planning with scenario Planning approach (Case Study: City of Urmia)

Creative cities are considered to be centers for innovation, creativity and the transformation of ideas into wealth. Since ideas and innovations are the main competitive elements in the age of globalization, having a creative city is a dream of any society. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to explain and planning a creative city in Urmia with an emphasis on scenarios approach. The statistical population of the study are two levels; the experts, Urmia and its five regions. Data gathering method to explore the components of the creative city(10 main criteria: scale, creative industries, creative class, creativity infrastructure, efficiency and effectiveness, vitality, communication technology, social diversity, social capital, quality of life with 16 sub-criteria and 106 indicators, which are selected based on a thorough external and internal sources survey) is in both forms of documentation (secondary data) and survey (initial data) and the tools used in the survey method were questionnaires and interviews. In order to conduct research, two basic steps were taken after identifying and determining the indicators of urban creativity; the research method was descriptive-analytic in the first step And for data analysis From network analysis and TOPSIS models, inferential statistics tests such as correlation coefficient, multivariable regression and path analysis are used. The method of study in the second step was based on new methods of future science research, with emphasis on Scenario and for analyzing data a combination of Delphi methods, cross-impact analysis, and CIB have been used in the context of Mick's Mac and Wizard scenarios software’s. The results of the ANP model show that which criteria of creativity and creative class infrastructure were respectively with 0.320 and 0.194 the most, the urban scale and social diversity criteria’s , respectively with the score of 0.012 and 0.023, have the least importance and impact on the movement of Urmia to a creative city. The study of the status of indicators of creativity and how they are distributed and ranked it shows that one region with a rate of 0. 97812 has been ranked first and the second region with of 0.009705 is ranked last in Llevel of creativity are located. The results show that there is a positive and significant correlation between ten variables and urban creativity in five regions of Urmia. Meanwhile, the region one with 0.496 has the highest correlation level and the above ten variables are able to explain 37.8% of variance variations (Urmia Urban Creativity Situation). The results of the path analysis are illustrative the criteria of creativity infrastructure and creative class with the rate of 0.501 and 0.490 have the greatest effect on the realization of the Urmia creative city. As a result, strategies such as developing centers for attracting elites, maintaining the creative class, using Urumia's social diversification capacity, investing and developing technology infrastructures ... have the greatest impact on Urumia's pursuit of the realization of a creative city, To elaborate urban planning scenarios in Urmia, the effects of the factors affecting urban creativity on each other were evaluated by expert experts, the result was the identification of 15 key factors, after the opinion of professors, experts and topic specialists, repeatedly matching the same with each other and eventually identifying six key and effective factors. For the above factors, based on the idea of scenario, 18 possible and possible situations are defined in the future of Urmia city, and with the formation of a 18x18 matrix and utilizing the knowledge of experts and urban planners in assessing the impact of occurrence of each situation on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other situations in Urmia with use the capabilities of the Scenario Wizard; 4 scenarios with a high probability of occurrence, 25 scenarios with a moderate to high probability and 123 scenarios with low and low probability, occurrence were extracted. The basis for this thesis, analysis of 4 very strong scenarios and 25 scenarios with a high probability of occurrence. Based on the results, the first scenario is the best and strongest scenario for planning Urmia creative city, although it does not include all its desirable goals and ideals, it does suggest that there are positive trends for their realization. At the end, using the swot model, Appropriate strategies were presented in case of occurrence of each of the four strong scenarios, That defense strategies (WF) in the first priority and Competitive Strategies (ST) are in the second priority.