MORTALIDADE POR CÂNCER DE MAMA NOS ESTADOS DO NORDESTE DO BRASIL: TENDÊNCIAS ATUAIS E PROJEÇÕES ATÉ 2030 Breast cancer mortality in the northeast of brazil: current trends and forecasts to 2030

Objective: To analyze time trends in mortality from breast cancer in the states of northeastern Brazil in the period 1996-2010 and project mortality for the 2011 to 2030 period. Methods: Ecological time series study, using data on deaths (Mortality Information System) and demographic base (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Analysis of mortality trends by Joinpoint regression and Nordpred for calculating the projections. Results: From 1996 to 2010, the states of Pernambuco and Ceara had the highest mortality rates from breast cancer. The analysis by Joinpoint found significant increase for all states of the northeast of Brazil, especially the states of Piaui (APC = 9.7%, 95% CI 8.1 11.4 p <0.01) and Paraiba (APC = 9.1%, 95% CI 7.0 -11.3 p <0.01). The Rio Grande do Norte state presented the Joinpoint occurrence in 1999, from a trend of stability for a significant increase trend (APC = 6.6% per year). The mortality projection to the year 2030, the greatest variations in mortality rates are observed in the states of Maranhao, Piaui and Alagoas. The projected numbers will be explained in most of the variation in risk of death. Conclusions: The mortality from breast cancer in northeastern Brazil showed a strong upward trend, with large increases in rates by the year 2030, which makes it essential for the structuring of promotion, surveillance and health care for this disease in this region.