Contemporary climate changes in the southwest of the Valdai Hills: A statistical analysis of the long-term dynamics of the air temperature

As the scientific community accepts the modern global climate changes, statistical analysis of a time series of hydrometeorological parameters becomes topical. A time series of air temperature was decomposed in this work; the decomposition allows one to distinguish regular, seasonal, and random components and to assess their statistical significance and adequacy to observation results. On the basis of a linear-regression model, a statistically significant increase in the annual average air temperature in the region under study was determined, both for the entire observation period and for separate months of the year.