A method for systematic assessment of the relative prognostic significance of symptoms and signs in patients with a chronic disease: I. Description of model and selection of prognostically significant symptoms and signs

Abstract A model of the course of a chronic disease was formulated. The model implies that among patients suffering from a chronic disease a symptom or sign relevant to the prognosis will be present more frequently the earlier it occurs in the natural course of the disease. Utilizing this principle a method for the assessment of the relative prognostic significance of symptoms and signs was derived. The results of its application on the data from a series of patients with aortic incompetence were in accordance with the model and proved to be clinically meaningful.