On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India

Crop loss and ensuing social crises can be detrimental for the agriculture-driven economy of India. Though some studies identify country-wide increasing temperatures as the dominant factor for crop loss, the agro-climatic diversity within the country necessitates an understanding of the influence of climate variability on yields at regional scales. We report a complex interplay among rainfall, temperature and cropping choices, with a focus on the drought-prone Marathwada region in Maharashtra. Our analysis based on observations, as well as statistical and process-based modelling experiments, and temperature projections of 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds show that for the two major cropping seasons, rainfall deficit is the primary cause of crop failure, as compared to rising temperatures. The gradual shift from drought-resilient food crops, such as sorghum and pearl-millet to water-intensive cash crops such as sugarcane in recent years, is seemingly responsible for aggravating this crisis. Our findings warrant strategies promoting drought-resilient food crops, that will be useful, not only for mitigating the immediate agrarian crisis, but also for curbing impending threats to food security in the region under future climate change.