Predictive Model of Early Spontaneous Ductus Arteriosus Closure Based on Neonatologist Performed Echocardiography in Preterm Infants

Background. Patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) treatment remains controversial. Modelling on the predictive capacity of early spontaneous PDA closure would help in decision-making. Aim. To design a predictive model of early spontaneous PDA closure. Methods: As part of a trial to assess efficacy and safety of two ibuprofen treatment schemes for PDA, infants below 29 weeks’ gestation were scanned between 18-72 h of birth, and serially if indicated. PDA treatment was decided based on echocardiography signs of lung overflow or systemic hypoperfusion and clinical criteria. A PDA score that included the echocardiographic parameters significantly associated with treatment prescription was retrospectively applied. Perinatal variables and screening score were included in a backwards elimination model to predict early spontaneous closure. Results: Among 87 eligible infants (27 weeks’ gestation; age at screening 45h), 21 received ibuprofen at 69h of life [(screening score=7 (IQR=5-8.5); score at treatment=9 (IQR=8-9)], while 42 infants had conservative management, [screening score=1 (IQR=0-4)]. Twenty four infants were excluded (ibuprofen contraindication, declined consent or incomplete echocardiography). Screening score showed an AUC=0.93 to predict early spontaneous PDA closure, [cut-off value=4.5 (sensitivity=0.90, specificity=0.86)]. The predictive model for early spontaneous PDA closure followed the equation: Log (p/1-p) = -28.41+1.23*gestational age-0.87*PDA screening score Conclusions: A predictive model of early spontaneous PDA closure that includes gestational age and the screening PDA score is proposed to help clinicians in the decision- making for PDA treatment. In addition, this model could be used in future intervention trials aimed to prevent PDA related morbidities to improve the eligibility criteria.