Team 2: Representing the Civilian Population in Urban Stability Operations

Armed forces across the globe are conducting stability operations to establish enduring political systems in former crisis regions. A goal of stability operations is to influence civilian attitudes in favor of the host nation (HN) government and the stabilization forces. To better understand the dynamics of civilian attitudes, experts have developed analytic models to represent civilian behaviors and reactions to changes in the cultural and societal landscape. Further research is required to integrate concepts from various analytic models to explore the complexity of civilian behaviors. Our team’s goal for IDFW 15 was to develop rudimentary agent-based simulation models of civilian behaviors that integrate concepts from selected analytic models. The work conducted at IDFW 15 extends research led by the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command Analysis Center (TRAC) in Monterey to develop simulation models representing complex social environments. The intent of the simulation models is to assess the effect of societal events on populace behavior. Such events include diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) factors. When provided with a set of DIME inputs, the simulation model proposes likely responses by the civilian populace. The simulation model developers used concepts derived from analytic models across the fields of sociology, economics, and international relations to support simulation development. Specifically, the simulation model developers used data and algorithms from analytic models to represent complex social interactions and networks. Complex interactions and networks are critical when attempting to explain the effect of events (inputs) on civilian behavior (outputs). Additionally, analytic models provided welldefined measures of effectiveness easily captured in the agentbased simulation models.