Firearm Sales and the COVID-19 Pandemic

A record 3.7 million firearm background checks were completed in March, 2020, the month that the United States began responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using monthly state-level data, we show that the pandemic is associated with a 40 percent increase in the firearm background check rate. The COVID-19 effect is significantly greater than the increases in firearm sales associated with gun-buying events in the past, including the election of Barack Obama in 2008 and the Sandy Hook Elementary school shooting. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the increase in background checks in Republican-leaning states is statistically indistinguishable from the increase in Democrat-leaning states. The only other event that we explore where all states across the political spectrum react similarly in terms of firearm sales is following the 9-11 terrorist attacks. However, the magnitude of the increase in firearm background checks during the COVID-19 pandemic is approximately twice as large as the terrorist attacks. Our findings are relevant to public health officials concerned about the combination of more firearms and deteriorating mental health during the COVID-19 outbreak. At the same time, the non-partisan response in firearm purchases during the pandemic suggests that the divide between political parties may not be as wide as previously thought.