Multiphysics modeling and uncertainty quantification for an active composite reflector

A multiphysics, high resolution simulation of an actively controlled, composite reflector panel is developed to extrapolate from ground test results to flight performance. The subject test article has previously demonstrated sub-micron corrected shape in a controlled laboratory thermal load. This paper develops a model of the on-orbit performance of the panel under realistic thermal loads, with an active heater control system, and performs an uncertainty quantification of the predicted response. The primary contribution of this paper is the first reported application of the Sandia developed Sierra mechanics simulation tools to a spacecraft multiphysics simulation of a closed-loop system, including uncertainty quantification. The simulation was developed so as to have sufficient resolution to capture the residual panel shape error that remains after the thermal and mechanical control loops are closed. An uncertainty quantification analysis was performed to assess the predicted tolerance in the closed-loop wavefront error. Key tools used for the uncertainty quantification are also described.