Environmental Toxicology LINKING MECHANISTIC TOXICOLOGY TO POPULATION MODELS IN FORECASTING RECOVERY FROM CHEMICAL STRESS: A CASE STUDY FROM JACKFISH BAY, ONTARIO, CANADA

yMid-Continent Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Grosse Ile, Michigan, USAzMid-Continent Ecology Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, Minnesota, USAxAquatic Contaminants Research Division, Environment Canada, Burlington, Ontario, CanadakUniversity of New Brunswick, Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada#Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Grosse Ile, Michigan, USA(Submitted 15 October 2014; Returned for Revision 24 November 2014; Accepted 22 February 2015)Abstract: Recovery of fish and wildlife populations after stressor mitigation serves as a basis for evaluating remediation success.Unfortunately, effectively monitoring population status on a routine basis can be difficult and costly. In the present study, the authorsdescribeaframeworkthatcanbeappliedinconjunctionwithfieldmonitoringefforts(e.g.,througheffects-basedmonitoringprograms)tolinkchemicallyinducedalterationsinmolecularandbiochemicalendpointstoadverseoutcomesinwholeorganismsandpopulations.The approach employs a simple density-dependent logistic matrix model linked to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for reproductiveeffects in fish. Application of this framework requires a life table for the organism of interest, a measure of carrying capacity for thepopulation of interest, and estimation of the effect of stressors on vital rates of organisms within the study population. The authorsdemonstrate the framework using linked AOPs and population models parameterized with long-term monitoring data for white sucker(Catostomus commersoni) collected from a study site at Jackfish Bay, Lake Superior, Canada. Individual responses of fish exposed topulpmilleffluentwereusedtodemonstratetheframework’scapabilitytoprojectalterationsinpopulationstatus,bothintermsofongoingimpactandsubsequentrecoveryafterstressormitigationassociatedwithprocesschangesatthemill.ThegeneralapproachdemonstratedattheJackfishBaysitecanbeappliedtocharacterizepopulationstatusesofotherspeciesatavarietyofimpactedsitesandcanaccountforeffectsofmultiplestressors(bothchemicalandnonchemical)anddynamicswithincomplexlandscapes(i.e.,meta-populationsincludingemigration and immigration processes). Environ Toxicol Chem 2015;9999:1–11. # 2015 SETACKeywords: Adverse outcome pathway Population model White sucker Pulp mill effluentINTRODUCTION