Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Adding Palbociclib as a Second-Line Endocrine Therapy for HR+/HER2– Metastatic Breast Cancer From the US and Chinese Perspectives

Abstract Purpose As a second-line endocrine therapy for hormone receptor–positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative (HR + /HER2 – ) metastatic breast cancer, palbociclib has demonstrated significant efficacy in prolonging progression-free survival when added to a regimen containing fulvestrant. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of palbociclib from the perspectives of the United States and China. Methods We developed a Markov model to estimate lifetime costs, overall life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to predict the uncertainty of the model developed. The time horizon was 10 years, and the perspective was that of the payer. Findings Within a 10-year time horizon, the palbociclib-containing strategy provided an additional 0.568 QALY, with an ICER of 88,854 USD/QALY, in the United States. When palbociclib cost 30%, 20%, and 10% of the current price, the ICERs were 185,526, 42,193, and 98,860 USD/QALY, respectively. In China, the ICER was 182,779 USD/QALY. When palbociclib cost 30%, 20%, and 10% of the current price, the ICERs were 79,558, 64,812, and 50,066 USD/QALY, respectively. In order to meet 50% probability of cost-effectiveness, the estimated price would have to be 32.52 USD/100 mg at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 58,480 USD/QALY (3 × per-capita domestic product of Beijing, China). Implications Adding palbociclib to a regimen of fulvestrant is unlikely to be cost-effective as a second-line endocrine therapy for HR + /HER2 – metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with at the current price in the United States and China. For widely meeting the treatment demands of patients, it may be a better option to decrease the price or provide more patients with a financial assistance program for palbociclib both in the United States and in China.