DESINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃO E COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR: UMA ANÁLISE PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA NO PERÍODO RECENTE

The Brazilian manufacturing industry has lost participation in the composition of the trade balance and in the world manufacture in the recent period. In this context, the present study aims to analyze whether foreign trade caused the process of deindustrialization observed in the country. We used the vector error correction model (VEC) for this analysis. It was not possible to infer that the Brazilian deindustrialization occurred through foreign trade. However, the targeting of a large part of the national production for primary goods, mainly due to the appreciation of commodities in the international market and the exchange appreciation arising from the increase in the prices of these goods, during the analyzed period, seem to have been harmful to the domestic processing industry, suggesting in part the reprimarization of the Brazilian export line.