Foundations for a Probabilistic Event Calculus

We present PEC, an Event Calculus (EC) style action language for reasoning about probabilistic causal and narrative information. It has an action language style syntax similar to that of the EC variant \(\mathcal {M}\)odular-\(\mathcal {E}\). Its semantics is given in terms of possible worlds which constitute possible evolutions of the domain, and builds on that of Epistemic Functional EC (EFEC). We also describe an ASP implementation of PEC and show the sense in which this is sound and complete.