Prostate cancer risk prediction in a urology clinic in Mexico

Abstract Objectives To evaluate factors affecting the risk of prostate cancer (CaP) and high-grade disease (HGCaP, Gleason score ≥ 7) in a Mexican referral population, with comparison to the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (PCPTRC). Methods and materials From a retrospective study of 826 patients who underwent prostate biopsy between January 2005 and December 2009 at the Instituto Nacional de Cancerologia, Mexico, logistic regression was used to assess the effects of age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal exam (DRE), first-degree family history of CaP, and history of a prior prostate biopsy on CaP and HGCaP, separately. Internal discrimination, goodness-of-fit, and clinical utility of the resulting models were assessed with comparison to the PCPTRC. Results Rates of both CaP (73.2%) and HGCaP (33.3%) were high among referral patients in this Mexican urology clinic. The PCPTRC generally underestimated the risk of CaP but overestimated the risk of HGCaP. Four factors influencing CaP on biopsy were logPSA, DRE, family history and a prior biopsy history (all P P P = 0.13). Conclusions Lack of screening programs or regular urologic checkups in Mexico imply that men typically first reach specialized clinics with a high cancer risk. This renders diagnostic tools developed on comparatively healthy populations, such as the PCPTRC, of lesser utility. Continued efforts are needed to develop and externally validate new clinical diagnostic tools specific to high-risk referral populations incorporating new biomarkers and more clinical characteristics.