Assessing the WEPP model performance for predicting daily runoff in three terrestrial ecosystems in western Syria.

Abstract Soil erosion is one of the main threats facing the agriculture and natural resources sector all over the world, and the same is true for Syria. Several empirical and physically based tools have been proposed to assess erosion induced soil losses and runoff driving the processes, from plot to regional spatial scales. The main goal of this research is to evaluate the performance of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model in predicting runoff in comparison with field experiments in the Al-Sabahia region of Western Syria in three ecosystems: agricultural lands (AG), burned forest (BF) and forest (FO). To achieve this, field experimental plots (2∗1.65∗0.5 m) were prepared to obtain runoff observation data between September 2012 and December 2013. In addition, the input data (atmospheric forcing, soil, slope, land management) were prepared to run the WEPP model to estimate the runoff. The results indicate that the average observed runoffs in the AG, BF and FO were 12.54 ± 1.17, 4.81 ± 0.97 and 1.72 ± 0.16 mm/event, respectively, while the simulated runoffs in the AG, BF and FO were 15.15 ± 0.89, 9.23 ± 1.48 and 2.61 ± 0.47mm/event, respectively. The statistical evaluation of the model's performance showed an unsatisfactory performance of the WEPP model for predicting the run-offs in the study area. This may be caused by the structural flaws in the model, and/or the insufficient site-specific input parameters. So, to achieve good performance and reliable results of the WEPP model, more observation data is required from different ecosystems in Syria. These findings can provide guidance to planners and environmental engineers for proposing environmental protection and water resources management plans in the Coastal Region in Syria.