Novel Models Predict Postsurgical Recurrence and Overall Survival for Patients with HBV‐related Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma ≤10 cm and without Portal Venous Tumor Thrombus

BACKGROUND The predictive model of postsurgical recurrence for solitary early hepatocellular carcinoma (SE-HCC) is no well-established. The aim of this study was to develop a novel model for prediction of postsurgical recurrence and survival for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) related SE-HCC ≤10 cm. PATIENTS AND METHODS Data from 1081 patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm who underwent curative liver resection from 2003 to 2016 in our center were collected retrospectively and randomly divided into the derivation cohort (n=811) and the internal validation cohort (n=270). 823 patients selected from another four tertiary hospitals served as the external validation cohort. Postsurgical recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) predictive nomograms were generated. The discriminatory accuracies of the nomograms were compared with six conventional HCC staging systems. RESULTS Tumor size, differentiation, microscopic vascular invasion, preoperative α-fetoprotein, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, ALBI grade, and blood transfusion were identified as the risk factors associated with RFS and OS. RFS- and OS-predictive nomograms based on these 7 variables were generated. The C-index was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.87) for the RFS-nomogram, and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.91) for the OS-nomogram. Calibration curves showed good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction. Both C-indexes of the two nomograms were substantially higher than those of the six conventional HCC staging systems (0.54-0.74 for RFS; 0.58-0.76 for OS) and those of HCC nomograms reported in literature. CONCLUSIONS The novel nomograms were shown to be accurate at predicting postoperative recurrence and OS for patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE This multi-center study proposed recurrence- or mortality-predictive nomograms for patients with HBV-related SE-HCC ≤10 cm after curative liver resection. A close postsurgical surveillance protocol and adjuvant therapy should be considered for patient at high risk of recurrence.