Climate change and malaria in India

The focus in this paper is to understand the likely in flu ence of climate change on vector production and malaria transmission in India. A set of transmission wind ows typic al to India have been deve loped, in terms of different temperature ranges for a particular range of relative hu midity, by analysing the present climate trends and corresponding malaria incidences. Using these transmission window criteria, the most endemic malarious regions emerge as the central and eastern In dian regions of the country covering Madhya Pra desh, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, West Be n gal and Assam in the current climate conditions. Appl ying the same criteria under the future climate change conditions (results of HadRM2 u sing 1S92a scenario) in 2050s, it is projected that malaria is likely to pe rsist in Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam, bordering north of West Bengal. Ho w ever, it may shift from the central Indian region to the south western coastal states of Maharashtra, Karn ataka and Kerala. Also the northern states, in cluding Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast may become malaria prone. The duration of the transmission wi n dows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in the southern states. The extent of vu lnerability due to malaria depends on the prevailing socio -economic cond i-tions . The increase or decrease in vulnerability due t o climate change in the 205 0s will therefore d epend on t he developmental path followed by India. Therefore it is important to understand the current adaptation mechanisms and improve the coping c apacities of the vulnerable section of the population by helping to e n-hance their accessibility to health services, im proved surveillance and forecasting technol ogies. Keywords: Climate determinants, malaria incidence, P. falciparum , P. vivax , transmi ssion window, vector. C