Time series analysis reveals the environmental variability of Procambarus clarkii cultures under changing meteorological parameters and its potential effect on an important cultivating area in China

Abstract The P. clarkii aquaculture is mostly conducted using traditional soil-ponds in China, which are directly exposed to the open-air environment. This study explored the influence of meteorological trends on the water environment of P. clarkii cultures in Hubei province, which account for nearly 44.28% of the total production in China, and explore the potential impacts of these changes on the cultivation of P. clarkii to provide a prediction guide for traditional soil-pond farmers. The results showed that dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and pH in traditional aquaculture ponds were highly susceptible to meteorological changes. Changes in atmospheric temperature and relative humidity preceded changes in water parameters by about one hour, making them potential meteorological indicators for anticipating changes in the aquaculture ponds. Furthermore, we found that changes in dissolved oxygen preceded changes in pH, both of which preceded the water temperature. Considering that water parameters in traditional aquaculture are prone to abrupt changes, the yield of P. clarkii may be affected by repeated drastic and short-term fluctuations in water parameters. Given the potential impact of abrupt environment change, the “one-hour reaction” predicted by meteorological change may be important to ensure the cultivating efficiency of P. clarki in the primary cultivating areas of Hubei province.