A simple prognostic model for assessing in-hospital mortality risk in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure

AbstractBackgroundAn assessing of the in-hospital mortality risk for an emergency hospitalized patient with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is challenging task. Simple formula can help.MethodsOn the base of six indicators identified in derivation group, simple formula for assessing the risk for in-hospital mortality of ADHF patients was derived and later tested in validation group.ResultsThe retrospective analysis of a derivation group (533 survivors, 121 deceased) identified six risk indicators: age, heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and serum concentrations of urea, sodium (Na) and uric acid (UA). The final formula was created ([age/10]2 × HR/SBP)+(Urea-Na/10)+UA/100 and formula result of 53 was established as cut-off result. In the derivation group, at the cut-off point of 53, area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.741 (95% CI 0.701–0.776); with sensitivity 54% and specificity 83%. The discriminative capacity of the formula was significantly higher than each of its components. In ...